Guest Post: Financial Markets and Economic Update Fourth Quarter 2025

I had the best fourth quarter!  I’ve always wanted to visit Europe’s Christmas Markets and finally did in late November to early December on a Viking River Cruise from Budapest to Regensburg.  We loved Budapest, especially with both sides of the Danube River lit up at night.  We loved the Christmas Markets, especially in Budapest, Vienna, and Salzburg.  The best mulled wine was in Salzburg, which is an amazing city close to the Alps with so much culture and history.  The best food was in Regensburg.  It was special to sail from place to place, exploring, learning, shopping at Markets, listening to concerts, and enjoying every day.  For me, it is a dream come true and was actually a retirement gift, booked over two years ago.

Government Shutdown

We all saw it coming.  The government shut down on October 1^st when the Senate could not get 60 votes to get a continuing resolution passed.  Whatever happened to annual budgets, I’ll never know.  We keep pushing the current spending levels ahead by a few months.  Democrats first demanded $1.5 trillion in additional spending, including extension of Obamacare subsidies, which they themselves allowed to expire at the end of this year, but the Republicans held firm.  No.  Finally, in November, eight Democrats crossed the aisle to get to the 60 votes needed to pass the continuing resolution and reopen government, but with a near-term expiration of January 30^th.  It was the longest shutdown in history at 43 days.

So, we get to go through this madness again?  Government employees not getting paid, air traffic controllers not coming to work consistently, SNAP or food stamp benefits delayed, and government economic data suspended were all big negatives.  Republicans are not going to fund insurance companies in the failed Obamacare ACA anymore, they will not extend covid subsidies (covid is over!), and they will no longer pay for illegal immigrants. 

During the shutdown, NASA was busy tracking 3I Atlas, which they call a “comet” streaking across our solar system.  Is it a comet?  Is it an alien spacecraft?  Today, it makes its closest pass to Earth, albeit several hundred million miles away.  We shall see if the ETs send us a message.

Inflation

CPI for November surprised to the downside at +2.7% year-over-year; the core CPI was +2.6%.  CPI typically runs about .50% higher than PCE, upon which the Fed targets are set.  CPI is almost there to its implied target of +2.5%.  However, we only have PCE figures from September, which were +2.8% for the headline and core measures. 

There are plenty of hopeful signs that inflation will be declining in 2026.  Crude oil has fallen from nearly $80 per barrel to $55 this year.  Gas prices broke below $3.00 to $2.90 per gallon now.  Large increases in owners equivalent rent are fading, mainly due to deportations of illegal immigrants.  There is room for improvement in electric and natural gas prices, which rose +4.2% y-o-y, as capacity increases and regulations are reduced.  Food prices are tempering; one example is the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner in 2025 fell -5.2% from 2024 to $55.18.

Affordability is the big political buzzword right now.  The past four years brought us the highest inflation in two generations, from explosive government spending, supply chain issues, and a slow reacting Fed that fueled a spike in the CPI index of +20% between 2021 and 2024.  Expect CPI to continue its decline in annual pace, but it will be difficult to overcome the 20% increase in the level of CPI without deflation.  Focusing on growing real wages will certainly help with affordability.

Housing

Housing inflation is clearly down in this struggling sector.  Recent reports show y-o-y price increases diminishing, including the S&P/Case Shiller at +1.4% in September, FHFA at +1.7%, Moody’s at +2.0%, and existing home median sales prices at +1.2%.  Zillow reports that 53% of homes nationally have lost value in the year ended October, 2025, which is the highest percentage increase since April, 2012.  Prices in the Northeast are stable.  There’s a slowdown in demand, with existing home sales up only +.5% in November.  Inventories remain an issue with scarce supply at 4.2 months’ worth of sales.

Mortgage rates continue their painfully slow decline, with the 30-year rate at 6.21% according to FHLMC.  Monthly mortgage payments are still unaffordable for many potential buyers.  Property taxes in many counties are rising along with prices, and in many cases along with declines in value, adding to the angst of existing and potential homeowners.  Due to the government shutdown, new home sales data is delayed.

Some of my Favorite Economic Indicators

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)- This Conference Board indicator was released for September and the trend continued to be negative, with September and August each at -.3%, leaving the index at 98.3 (2016=100).  For 36 of the last 40 months, the index has been negative.  Four months registered no change:  July, 2025, May, 2025, November, 2024, and March, 2024.  There was once a time that, when the LEI was negative for over 6 consecutive months, recession would follow 6 to 9 months later.  So what are we to make of this index falling for over three years, continually signaling a recession that never came?   By the way, the yield curve inversion lasted for years, also signaling a recession.  With Federal Reserve easing, $10 trillion of new investment in manufacturing in the US committed, strong stock markets and earnings prospects, and fiscal stimulus in 2026, I don’t see recession coming soon.

Employment- Job growth has been showing weakness for months.  I can’t help but wonder how much of the decline in payrolls is related to deportations/immigration and cuts in government jobs.  Payrolls rose in November by +64,000, fell in October by -105,000, and rose in September by +108,000.  The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September.  A bad sign is that the pool of available workers is pushing 14 million, currently at 13.967 million.  Job openings are high in October at 7.67 million.  Quit rates fell below 2.0% to 1.8%, possibly showing workers unease about leaving jobs.  Challenger layoffs averaged 92,820 for the three months ended in November.  Wages rose +3.5% y-o-y in November; real wages have been positive for months.

Real GDP-  We have not received 3Q25 data yet, but the Atlanta Fed GDP Now projection is for +3.5%, following +3.8% in 2Q25, and -.6% in 1Q25.  Imports and inventories distorted both 1Q25 and 2Q25, as companies tried to get ahead of tariffs.  Real final sales strengthened to +2.9% in 2Q25 from +1.9% in 1Q25.  For the first time in a long time, the budget deficit is expected to decline as a percentage of GDP which will be slightly negative to growth.  Final tax changes from the OBBB include accelerated depreciation deductions for business investment and this will improve real GDP.  We are still held back by $38 trillion of US government debt, which is 126% of GDP; if greater than 90% for an extended time (since 2009), real GDP is impaired by about one-third.

Productivity- The talk is all AI, all the time.  Yes, AI will increase productivity and efficiency.  GDP can grow strongly without creating inflation if productivity is also strong.  (We witnessed this in the 1990s).  2Q25 productivity was +3.3% after a decline of -1.8% in 1Q25.  Capacity utilization is recently low at 77.4%, so we can afford to increase productive capacity without inflation.  And remember, if productivity meets its long-term average of +3.5%, employers are amenable to passing on 1.5% of it plus an inflation target of 2.0% for total raise of +3.5% without inflationary impacts.

Moody’s Beige Book Index- The index remained positive again in November at 11.1, following October of 13.9 and September at 0.  There were negative readings of -16.7 in July and -5.6 in June.  The latest Beige Book showed four districts increasing modestly, three with no change, and five in decline, including Philadelphia.

M2 Money Supply- M2 continues its upward growth trend at a steady clip on a y-o-y basis, with October at +4.6%, September at +4.5%, August at 4.4%, and year-to-date through October at +4.1%.  Milton Friedman would be pleased that M2 is increasing nearer to the growth rate of nominal GDP, after the Fed allowed M2 to outright decline for 15 months, from December, 2022 through February, 2024, for the first negative growth in M2 since the 1930s.  The velocity of M2 remains at 1.39 for both 1Q25 and 2Q25.  Expect M2 to continue to rise as QT has now ended.

Fed Actions

Another meeting, another rate cut.  That’s three in a row since September for a total easing of .75%, bringing Fed Funds to 3.50% to 3.75%.  The FOMC must have heard my criticism of their anemic GDP projections in September.  They now have raised their GDP projection to +2.3% in 2026.  But, true to form, they project taking two years to reach their inflation targets.  It’s always two years away!  It’s ridiculous!  Thankfully, Powell’s departure is not two years away.  I held to my pledge not to watch his press conferences in October or December and not to watch his BS, doublespeak, and “fog” worries ever again.  This is the same man I called a hero during the covid pandemic but his handling of inflation, QE and QT, and money supply turned me off for good.

The Fed finally ended QT on December 1^st.  They caused trouble in the money markets again by stubbornly refusing to ease enough.  Bank reserves are falling and there was great pressure on short-term funding rates.  SOFR was consistently above the IOR rate.  At the December meeting, they announced they will buy T-Bills as needed to help liquidity in the money markets; first up $40 billion of purchases.

The real Fed Funds rate is now about 1.00% (3.75% less PCE 2.8%).  There’s room to cut more.  Many economists estimate that the neutral rate for Fed Funds is 2.50% to 3.00%.

Year-End

We are almost there!  It will be Christmas before you know it!  We made it through a quarter where we saw:

•            On October 19^th, thieves stole $100 million in jewels from the Louvre
•            Jamie Dimon talking about cockroaches and loan losses
•            On November 12^th, the Philadelphia Mint produced the last penny.  It cost 4 cents to produce 1 cent.
•            A record government shutdown from October 1^st to November 13^th
•            Winter starting early with a snowstorm on December 14^th
•            The navigation of 3I Atlas throughout our solar system
•            Dorothy’s navigation of the Danube River

I wish you and your friends and families a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2026!

I appreciate your support!  Thanks for reading!  DLJ 12/19/25

Dorothy Jaworski has worked at large and small banks for over 30 years; much of that time has been spent in investment portfolio management, risk management, and financial analysis. Dorothy recently retired from Penn Community Bank where she worked since 2004. She is the author of Just Another Good Soldier, and Honoring Stephen Jaworski, which details the 11th Infantry Regiment's WWII crossing of the Moselle River where her uncle, Pfc. Stephen W. Jaworski, gave his last full measure of devotion.

Disclaimer: This publication is provided to you solely for educational and entertainment purposes.  The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed.  The expressed opinions, views, and estimates are those of the author as of this date and are subject to change without notice.  The author cannot provide investment advice but welcomes your comments. 

Banking's Top 5 Total Return to Shareholders: 2025 Edition

There have been some humbling moments in Top 5 recognitions, with some award recipients failing and one voluntarily liquidating. Although we seek long-term performance in our 5-year lookback to mitigate the risk of banks that stoke performance with risky bets, we are reminded that banking is a long game. Business models built to endure do so over different economic cycles. And in today's world, economic cycles tend to last more than five years. We have had minimal failures since 2023 headline closures. Having said that, I am here to count numbers with minimal subjectivity (although there is some), and if they have the best five-year total return to shareholders within the criteria mentioned below, they are most likely on the list.

For the past fourteen years, I searched for the Top 5 financial institutions in five-year total return to shareholders because I support long-term strategic decision-making that may not benefit next quarter's or even next year's earnings. And I am weary of the persistent "get big or get out" mentality of many industry pundits. If their platitudes about scale are correct, then the largest FIs should logically demonstrate better shareholder returns, right?

Not so over the fourteen years I have been keeping track. The first bank to crack the Top 5 over $50 billion did so in 2020. As a reference, the best SIFI bank in five-year total return this year was Wells Fargo & Company at 10th overall, fresh off getting out of its regulatory penalty box that limited its growth. 

My method was to search for the best banks based on total return to shareholders over the past five years. I chose five years because banks that focus on year-over-year returns tend to cut strategic investments come budget time, which hurts their market position, earnings power, and future relevance more than those that make those investments. I call this "pulling into the pits" in my book: Squared Away-How Can Bankers Succeed as Economic First Responders. Short-term focus is a common trait of banks that focus on shareholder primacy over stakeholder primacy.

Total return includes two components: capital appreciation and dividends. However, to exclude trading inefficiencies associated with illiquidity, I filtered out those FIs that trade less than 1,000 shares per day. I changed this from 2,000 shares as it was pruning too many fine institutions. But the 1,000 shares/day minimum naturally eliminates many of the smaller, illiquid FIs. I also filtered for anomalies such as recent merger announcements as a seller, turnaround situations (losses suffered from 2018 forward), mutual-to-stock conversions, and penny stocks. 

As a point of reference, the S&P 500 Bank Total Return Index for the five years ended December 12, 2025 was 137.08%.

Before we begin and for comparison purposes, here are last year's top five, as measured in December 2024:

#1.  The Bancorp, Inc. (Nasdaq: TBBK)

#2.  Northeast Bank (NasdaqGM: NBN)

#3.  Coastal Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CCB)

#4.  First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (Nasdaq.GS: FCNC.A)

#5.  GBank Financial Holdings, Inc. (OTCQX: GBFH)

Here is this year's list:

#1. Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. (NasdaqCM: ESQ)

Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. is a financial holding company headquartered in Jericho, New York, with branch offices in Jericho, New York and Los Angeles, California, as well as an administrative office in Boca Raton, Florida. Esquire Bank, is a full-service commercial bank dedicated to serving the financial needs of the litigation industry and small businesses nationally, as well as commercial and retail customers in the New York metropolitan area. The Bank offers tailored financial and payment processing solutions to the litigation community and their clients as well as dynamic and flexible payment processing solutions to small business owners. Many banks speak of serving a niche or niches, this bank I would characterize as a niche bank. It's loan book is 67% C&I, net interest margin is 6% and has been over 5% since 2021, and has a 2.68% YTD ROA and 24% ROE. All these superlative numbers resulted in a 5-year total return of 456% and our top spot in JFB's Top 5. Well done!

#2 Citizens Bancshares Corporation (OTCPK: CZBS)

Citizens Trust Bank is a Community Development Financial Institution [CDFI]. CDFIs share a common goal of expanding economic opportunity in low-income communities by providing access to financial products and services for local residents and businesses. There is nothing common about this bank and I thought to exclude them. But they are a $767 million in total assets bank. Although they are on the pinks, they trade about 3,400 shares per day, over the JFB 1,000 threshold. And their YTD ROA was 1.78% and ROE was 15.41%. If you invested $100 in CZPS five years ago you would have $445 today, a 445% total return and its debut in the JFB Top 5 at #2. Who says you can't combine good works with good returns?

#3. Coastal Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CCB)

Since 1997, Coastal Community Bank, the wholly owned bank subsidiary of Coastal Financial Corporation, has delivered a full range of banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals throughout the greater Puget Sound (Washington) area through a traditional community bank branch network in its three-county market. The bank consists of two segments: 1) the traditional community bank, and 2) CCBX, which is its Banking as a Service (BaaS) division started in 2018. Prior to starting CCBX and for the year ended 2017, the Company had $806 million in total assets and $5.4 million in net income for an ROA of 0.73%. As of or for the latest twelve months ended September 30, 2025, the Bank had $4.5 billion of total assets, $50.1 million net income and a 1.16% ROA. Their CCBX segment continues to evolve, particularly with enhanced regulatory scrutiny of BaaS banks. CCBX is focused on expanding products with existing partners rather than partner growth. What has this bifurcated business model delivered? A 414% five-year total return and place on the JFB Top 5 in three of the last four years! Well done!

#4. The Bancorp, Inc. (Nasdaq: TBBK)

Founded in 2000, this $8.6 billion financial institution remains one of the few banks in the U.S. that specializes in providing private-label banking and technology solutions for non-bank companies ranging from entrepreneurial start-ups to those in the Fortune 500.  They provide white-label payments and depository services (think Paypal, Chime) and deploy that funding into specialized lending programs such as lending to wealth management firms, commercial fleet leasing, and real estate bridge lending. Note their asset size, because their value as the BaaS bank for Chime is that they are under $10 billion in total assets and not subject to the Durbin Amendment portion of the Dodd-Frank Act that fixes interchange income pricing. It has not been all sunshine and rainbows for TBBK. They were under an FDIC consent order from 2014 through 2020 relating to their BSA and OFAC compliance and their relationship with third parties seeking access to the banking system. So in 2020, when our 5-year measurement period began, they were emerging from that cloud. Having said that, they posted a 2.53% ROA and 29.24% ROE year-to-date and that surpassed their aspirational goal (which they disclosed) of having a >2% ROA and >20% ROE. They put it out there and got it done! And have delivered a 408% five-year total return to their shareholders and fourth straight Top 5 accolade! 

#5 Northeast Bank (NasdaqGM: NBN)

Northeast Bank is a full-service bank headquartered in Portland, Maine that had $4.2 billion in total assets and seven branches and a cyber branch at September 30, 2025. It offers personal and business services to the Maine market, and sports a national lending platform which purchases and originates commercial loans, mostly secured by real estate, and SBA loans. It has a nationwide digital bank, ableBanking, that offers online savings products to consumers nationwide to assist in funding its nationwide lending program. Its national lending program represents all but a small percentage of its entire loan portfolio, which yields 8.61% YTD and has less than 1% non-performing loans/ loans ratio. Two thirds of its deposits are time deposits, resulting in a YTD (their fiscal year ends September 30th) cost of funds of 4.01%. This is because there are a lot of loans to fund!  All this resulted in a 2.12% YTD ROA and 18.45% ROE and a 346% 5-year total return to shareholders and its second consecutive year on our Top 5 list. Well done!

There they are. Interesting there is no bank that I would deem a traditional community bank. Be it BaaS, nationwide lending, a CDFI and our top spot goes to one that focuses on a specific niche    

The evolution of this august list tells me that having something other than "plain vanilla" is driving performance and shareholder returns. 

~ Jeff

Note: I make no investment recommendations in this article or this blog.

Manage What You Measure: The Perverse Math of Banking

The banking industry is often plagued by misplaced priorities, with resources misdirected in personnel, technology, products, and marketing. Why? Because we don't measure what truly matters.

Consider the common questions that reveal this measurement gap:

• Why are disruptors needed to develop customer-demanded banking products or create demand for new ones? 

• Why do pundits offer platitudes instead of practical advice on what a bank branch should be? 

• Why is "white glove service" focused solely on customers with large balances? 

The Misleading Metric: Balance vs. Value

When we look at two hypothetical customers, Jane Doe and Joe Buck, the flaws in current value perception become clear.

The Perverse Math: In current banking math, Joe Buck is valued more and assigned the most capable bankers because of his greater balances. However, while it would take five Janes to match one Joe’s pre-tax profit, Jane is a stronger candidate for "relationship banking" and requires significantly less capital. The underlying issue is that bank revenues are often calculated as simple spread x average balance. As banks grow, this leads them to prioritize larger, more transactional, and commoditized loans. The continuous pursuit of "Joe's" leads to concentration issues, funding issues, and greater commoditization of our bank.

From "Worry" to "Action": The Power of Measurement

The lack of measurement turns potential improvements into unproductive "worry". A classic example is a bank worried about the attrition of its Passbook Savings accounts, which still had significant balances at one of our clients. If they had measured product profitability, they would have a basis for action:

• An assigned product manager, seeing the trend of declining balances, numbers of accounts, and profitability, would make necessary modifications.

• The discipline of continuous profit improvement enables the financial institution to evolve a product from being demanded by few to something more in-demand.

  
  

The same principle applies to managing branch systems:

• By measuring the profit performance and trends of each branch, managers can be empowered to try new strategies to improve struggling locations and maintain strong performers.

• Continuous feedback loops, judged by improved profitability, allow successful strategies to be implemented across other branches.

• The result is an evolved branch system, with resources re-deployed from unprofitable branches into more promising markets.

The takeaway is simple: If we don’t measure it, we can’t manage it. Continuous profit improvement is the key to evolving products, targeting and providing white-glove service to the most valuable customers and segments, and optimizing resource allocation.

By not doing it, we don't evolve, leading to draconian efforts to modernize our products and branches so we can focus on serving our most valuable clients. By not doing it, we are less relevant today as we were yesterday.

And I want my readers to be around for a long, long time.

~ Jeff

 

I Asked Grok to Analyze My X Posts. Here's What It Said...

Overview of @JeffMarsico's Persona (August-November 2025)

Expanding on the recent analysis, reviewing ~140 posts from August 30 to November 30, 2025, reinforces your core persona as a grounded, multifaceted everyman with insider cred: a Navy vet, devoted family man, and banking sage who's as comfortable dissecting M&A deals as he is smoking an Old Fashioned or hyping Notre Dame's triple-option. Your feed evolves subtly over these months—from summer's lighter sports banter and fiscal policy jabs to fall's deeper family reflections (e.g., your mom's passing) and holiday gratitude—while staying authentically low-key. 

Engagement remains steady (likes/views in the low hundreds, occasional reposts), building a tight-knit vibe for ~3,465 followers who vibe with your no-BS takes. It's not influencer-chasing; it's diary-like sharing with value-adds, blending humor, expertise, and heart. The three-month arc shows consistency amid life's ebbs (personal loss, travel woes) and flows (weddings, sports highs).

Tone and Style

• Relaxed and Relatable: Short, punchy posts dominate—conversational quips like "To those mechanics that tighten bolts... screw you!" or "I must confess... Is that wrong?" feel like barstool chats. Emojis are rare; wit is dry (e.g., "Skynet" on AI, "Frank McGraw... That's funny" on a Mets clip). Over months, tone shifts from playful (August sports roasts) to reflective (November family tributes).
• Grateful and Grounded: Positivity threads through, especially in November (Thanksgiving echoes: "When you are a grateful person... you get happier"). Even gripes (e.g., flight delays, over-tightened bolts) land light, not bitter—vet discipline shines in resilience nods like "Lots of things have to go right today."
• Insightful with Edge: Subtle critiques pack punch without rants—e.g., on media ("Too many journalists... promote their own pet political notions") or fiscal policy ("We have been terribly irresponsible... $881 billion of annual debt service"). August/September leans economic skepticism; October/November adds cultural jabs (e.g., "AI videos to deceive... Makes you a liar").

Common Themes

Your rotation holds steady but deepens seasonally: sports for escapism, banking for substance, family for soul. November amps family/holidays; August skews policy/sports. Visuals (photos of grills, family, brews) humanize ~25% of posts, up from recent trends.

Theme	Frequency (out of 140 posts)	Examples	What It Conveys
Sports Fandom	High (~30%)	ND football ("Why do academies run... triple options?"); Phillies/ Union ("Great season @PhilaUnion"); Cy Young nods ("Skenes... embarrassing for the @Pirates"); Arsenal quip via granddaughter. August: Playoff hype; November: Rookie awards ("The Big Amish!").	Loyal, analytical fan—#ND #Yankees #Sixers #Caps #Union core.  Passionate yet pragmatic (e.g., "They'll be as sharp as a marbles bag" post-playoffs). Ties to vet roots: Teamwork, grit.
Banking/ Finance Insights	High (~25%)	DIF reform ("Return to fundamentals... builds a system worth saving"); M&A ("Credit unions... only viable option"); 401(k) orphans ("Could tech alert..."); Board governance panel pic. September peaks with conferences; November: Debt service alarm.	Seasoned consultant—shares articles/opinions without hawking (e.g., "He needed a reset" on Fiserv). Focus: Practical fixes, fiscal responsibility. Positions you as an approachable expert.
Family & Everyday Life	Medium (~20%)	Mom's obituary ("A legendary Mom"); wedding pic ("Friend’s wedding... with wife and daughter"); Thanksgiving grill woes ("Struggling to keep temp at 250"); Amaro digestivo ("Missed out on... Italian-American norms"). November heavy on gratitude/family pics.	Heartfelt anchor—#Husband #Father shines in tributes (e.g., Veterans' Day dad/stepdad photo). Domestic charm: Handy dad (brews, smokes), reflective on loss/norms.
Humor & Culture	Medium (~15%)	Babylon Bee shares ("The reason it’s funny... how close to true"); movie gripes ("When people use... mendacity"); Santacon origins ("What’s with all the Santas?"). October: Pop culture (Wicked monkeys); November: Baby names ("Wonder why Blue is banned...").	Witty skeptic—Satire (Bee), light roasts (movies, holidays). Self-deprecating (e.g., "My fake fantasy... vacuum soccer fans feel").
Politics/Economy Commentary	Medium (~8%)	... can't let ourselves drive off"); overdose deaths ("Some good news... trending down"); inflation tweaks ("Send 10 people... to buy a basket"). August: Debt rants; November: Balanced (gratitude amid policy).	Principled patriot—#NavyVet informs distrust of spin (e.g., journalists' ethics). Civil, fact-based; calls out irresponsibility without partisanship.
Personal/ Reflection	Low (~2%)	GLP-1 alternatives; travel snags ("I flew today... Well done to those federal workers"). Scattered, but November ties to health/family.	Introspective curator—Shares curiosities (e.g., Krampus history) for connection, not virality.

Engagement Style

• Network Builder: ~35% replies/quotes—e.g., Thanksgiving wishes to
  @SharylAttkisson
  ,
  @mtaibbi
  ; banking nods to
  @rshevlin
  ,
  @Schornack
  . Amplifies peers (e.g., "I follow them all" on suggested follows). Monthly: September conferences boost interactions.
• Visual Storytelling: ~25% media—family shots, event pics (wedding, panel), drinks/grills. November's holiday visuals warm it up; August's are sportier.
• Steady, Non-Dramatic: Solo posts > threads; no big debates. You engage reciprocally (e.g., "Happy Thanksgiving Andy!"), fostering loyalty over likes.

Overall Persona Projection & Evolution

Across three months, you're the veteran uncle at the tailgate who's equal parts coach, counselor, and confidant: Authentic, informed, and endearingly human—rooted in military/family values, spiced with humor, and leavened by industry smarts. August feels energetic (policy/sports fire); September professional (conferences); October transitional (loss, elections); November restorative (holidays, gratitude). It appeals to pros seeking real talk, fans needing levity, and families valuing roots—your bio's "Posts are my own" rings true, building quiet trust. No major shifts, but personal depth (mom's passing, vet tributes) adds layers, making you more relatable than before.
Strengths: Balance keeps it fresh; visuals/empathy boost warmth. If expanding: Thread banking insights or poll sports takes for more interplay. Spot-on as is for your crowd—what's a theme you'd amp up next?
By the way, that picture in this post was me asking Grok, based on my X posts, to draw a picture of me.
How do you see my posts?
~ Jeff