Flawless Execution: Plan, Brief, Execute, Debrief

How do we connect our strategy to our vision? Can bankers identify, in high definition detail, the bank they want to become to remain relevant to their constituencies, and translate this future bank vision into action?

Regular readers of Jeff For Banks know I recently read Flawless Execution by former Air Force pilot Jim "Murph" Murphy by my post about defining your High Definition Destination. Far be it from me to send multiple shout-outs to an Air Force guy. The Navy has more planes (GO NAVY!). But, as the book's title suggests, Murph has some interesting thoughts on execution that I think can help banks bring vision to the ground floor.

Murph outlines how pilots plan for missions in a model represented in the accompanying picture. Could this work for community financial institutions? Let's walk through an example.

Suppose the FIs vision, or "high definition destination" is to be the number one business bank in the counties served for businesses with less than $10 million in revenue. The strategy team identifies a few Strategic Objectives that are critical to achieving the vision. For example, one Strategic Objective could be to develop a robust, yet simple suite of products designed to make the business persons' lives easier.

In the Flawless Execution model, a team would be assembled with all functions critical to the execution of the Strategic Objective present... commercial and retail banking, IT, compliance, marketing, etc. A plan is developed with responsibilities and timing. The team completes the game plan, and disperses to execute, re-assembling for regular updates and inter-dependencies.

After the product suite is developed and launched, per the plan, the team comes back together for a debrief to dispassionately discuss surprises, hurdles, miscues, and successes. This debrief is critical to organizational learning, ensuring the next Strategic Objective is executed better than the last. Yet, in my experience, the debrief rarely happens. 

Part of the reason is the increasing lack of candor in banking, and our society as a whole. I dedicated a blog post to this subject over three years ago, and I haven't noticed much improvement. How do we construct a culture of continuous improvement if we do not recognize execution flaws and impediments through a candid, yet dispassionate and impersonal debrief process?

Fighter pilots debrief this way because flaws in plan execution could end up in tragedy. Get better or risk death tends to add greater urgency than get better or have your FI relegated to the dust heap of irrelevance. 

But, as the numbers bear out, FIs need to get better at execution or risk irrelevance.  

How do you execute and do you debrief?

~ Jeff

Guest Post: 2013 Economic Year in Review and Outlook by Banker Dorothy Jaworski

We’ll Miss You, Ben

Now that the holidays are over, it is time to recognize that January, 2014 marks the last month as Federal Reserve Chairman for our favorite helicopter pilot, Ben Bernanke. He was just in Philadelphia on January 3rd delivering his last public speech and he nostalgically proclaimed that “the recovery remains incomplete,” which will qualify his comment for the understatement of the year award. 

Despite his heroic efforts, including a Fed Funds rate near zero for the past five years, forward guidance, scatterplots, press conferences, a new “openness,” and his trillion dollar QE bond buying programs, economic growth has not returned to “normal.” Our student of the Great Depression tried everything. He succeeded in saving us from true disaster in 2008, but has not been able to accomplish his goal of strong economic growth.

To put that GDP growth into perspective, consider that, in the three years following the recovery which began in June, 2009, real GDP averaged +2.2%. In the ten previous recessions, real GDP averaged +4.6% during a recovery. This helps to explain the Fed’s continued easy money policies, stretching now into year six. It also helps to explain my constant whining about sub-par growth!

Ben, we will miss you tremendously when you ride into the sunset on January 31st and we eagerly anticipate the reign of your successor, Janet “She Devil” Yellen. She will continue your zero rate policy and will “taper” your QE 3 program, because the markets have already dismissed its impact and tightened long term rates despite your wishes.

Incidentally, your QE 1 to 3 programs ran for six years, accumulated three trillion dollars of securities, and pushed long term rates lower when your forward guidance could not do so. But in nine short months of 2013, you and the Fed stumbled with mixed signals and miscommunication and the markets pushed the 10 year Treasury yield up by 130 basis points to 3.00%, removing all of the good attained by QE over the years. 

This anomaly occurred despite inflation readings that are trending downward in both the producer and consumer price indices. Mortgage rates rose just as much and they may potentially damage the housing market recovery. Another anomaly continues in that the 3.00% yield on the 10 year Treasury is much higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index of 2.15%. Stocks are supposed to have more risk. That is all I will say on stock markets, because they usually sell off once I write in depth about them, although PE ratios are fairly average and don’t call for huge correction. It shows that while the Fed may have a tight grip on short term rates, the market will decide long term ones.

Cautious Growth for 2014

We expect that GDP growth will continue in a cautious mode in 2014, likely between 2% and 2.5% once again. Many of our bank’s customers remain cautious about borrowing and spending on large projects. Many businesses remain uncertain due to the increased regulatory burden, the drama in the insurance markets due to Obamacare, income tax changes, and a still high unemployment rate at 7%, which serves to keep personal incomes in check and consumer spending under wraps.

Despite the “headwinds” mentioned above, the Federal Reserve has very optimistic GDP forecasts for future years, with 2014 at 2.8% to 3.2%. The National Association of Business Economics, or “NABE,” is almost as optimistic at close to 3%. Some of Wall Street’s brokers expect more moderate growth, with Sterne Agee at 1.7% to 2.3% and Janney Capital Markets at 2.1% to 2.5%. 

I find it interesting that these same forecasters expect continued drops in the unemployment rate, with the Fed lowest at 6.3% to 6.6% in 2014, yet growth is not even returning to the normal post-recession pace of 4.6%.

That is because the unemployment rate itself is also an anomaly, having fallen from above 8% in the third quarter of 2012 to 7% in November, 2013, mostly from people dropping out of the labor force and not from the measly pace of job creation, whether viewed from the payroll or household survey. The labor force participation rate has fallen from 66% pre-recession to 63% currently. The primary aggregate impact on the economy of this difference of 3 million workers no longer participating in our labor force is reduced income and thus, reduced purchasing power.

And So…

And so, we find ourselves over four years removed from the end of the last recession, a time when most recoveries would be ending, and this one has barely begun. The data as of late has continued to improve. Real GDP grew by 4.1% in the third quarter of 2013, but the strong growth numbers were the result of huge inventory building, to the tune of nearly $116 billion annualized. No wonder retailers were slashing prices for the Christmas holiday spending season. 

This high GDP number aside, we still have slow growth and structural changes occurring in our workforce, resulting in less income, less spending, and more incessant whining by me. 

Businesses are still cautious in capital spending. Several wild cards may improve growth—such as energy availability and prices, improvement in overseas economies in Europe and Asia, and our new Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, who should follow the low rate policies. And so, all of this adds up to cautious optimism for 2014. 

Our Philadelphia Eagles excited us and made us optimistic that their 2014 will be bright. We can be proud of what they achieved this year under new coach, Chip Kelly. I keep thinking back to the Phillies playoff loss in 2007, which taught them “how to lose” before they came back strong and won it all the following year in 2008. Just saying... 

And so, as I finish writing this, the polar vortex is about to give us two of the coldest days and nights in over twenty years. But we count our blessings; it will be back above freezing in a few days.

Stay tuned!

Thanks for reading and Happy New Year!  DJ 01/06/14

Dorothy Jaworski has worked at large and small banks for over 30 years; much of that time has been spent in investment portfolio management, risk management, and financial analysis. Dorothy has been with First Federal of Bucks County since November, 2004.

American Greed: Can being an honest broker be banks and credit unions competitive advantage?

Americans are becoming more responsible for their financial well being now and into retirement. According to a 2012 Boston College Center for Retirement Research study, 63% of American males (why only males I do not know) participated exclusively in defined contribution (DC) retirement plans in 2007, up from 47% in 1992. Those that participated in defined benefit (DB) pension plans was 16% in 2007, down from 31% in 1992. We are increasingly bearing the burden of managing our money.

Yet money management is a discipline done well by only a very few. My firm, full of banking industry consultants, just held an education session regarding our 401k plan. I would say, for me, it was interesting and educational. I will probably select the auto re balancing feature because I don't want to take the time to actively manage it. Will I take the time to do a good job researching my fund choices. Probably not.

So, if those involved in banking don't have the time or inclination to do it, how about the engineer, retail store manager, or forklift operator? I think, as a nation, we will need lots of help managing our money. Not just in retirement, because day to day money management is becoming more complex too. Gone are the days of keeping money in an envelope in the nightstand to save for a new refrigerator, or to pay the annual insurance premium.

Could this need for personal financial management prove to be a viable niche for community financial institutions? I think so. One reason is the amount of fraudsters that will emerge with messages of help and hope on an unsuspecting population, only to turn the helping hand into a backhoe to rake their customers cash into their own bank account. Don't believe me, check out a few episodes of CNBC's American Greed, a favorite show of my wife and I.

Although fraudsters don't typically use a community bank or credit union as home base for their antics, some do, such as Aubrey Lee Price who defrauded a community bank in Georgia for $21 million. Most fraudsters establish their own small financial services firm to do their work. Others use very large financial institutions that can only loosely be called banks. My point is that bad actors are not typically associated with the local bank or company credit union.

With this in mind, can the local community financial institution be viewed as the "go to" resource for those of us that are dazed and confused on how to manage our financial lives? Can we brand ourselves as the trusted advisor in our communities?

If so, we have to ask ourselves if we have the personnel, processes, and systems to execute on such a strategy. Because if we position ourselves as our customers' trusted advisor, and can't deliver, it will be difficult to overcome the negative brand perception.

Can we specialize as the trusted source for personal financial management?

~ Jeff

What is the better banking strategy: low expense v low deposit costs?

Here is a question that dogs us: should we follow a strategy that drives top quartile performance in operating expenses or cost of deposits? If your answer is "yes", your execution better be flawless. Because the two don't often go together. In my search, described below, only one bank made top quartile performance in both categories.

The low operating expense bank typically comes with a limited branch network. Bank futurists think this a good thing since branches are millstones around our collective necks. So in order to attract deposits, these banks tend to use premium rates to get people comfortable with not having a nearby branch. 

Low expense banks tend not to have sophisticated commercial banking operations too. Preferring instead to focus on residential real estate lending combined with transactional commercial real estate lending. By transactional, I mean the bank may resort to price to get deals, and not extensive customer relationships, as many of these customers don't value relationships anyway.

Conversely, low cost of deposit banks tend to have more expansive branch networks to get core retail and business account balances. Anecdotally, the most often heard reason a business customer objects to opening an operating account at a bank is because it lacks a nearby branch. But, admittedly, that could just be an objection that is not the "real reason".

Also, low cost of deposit banks tend to be heavy commercial lenders, both commercial real estate and business loans. That requires a good product set, and lots of resources. Asset-based lending requires much greater borrower interaction than plain vanilla commercial real estate lending.

So which strategy results in better performance? I went to the numbers (see table), and it's tough to tell.

I searched for banks of a certain size ($1B - $20B in assets) to eliminate trading anomalies from very large and very small banks. I also controlled for capital levels and asset quality to limit the number of factors impacting pricing. 

The picture is not totally clear on which strategy delivers the better returns or higher trading multiples. To be sure, both sets of top quartile banks are well run and rewarded with relatively high trading multiples. And they have delivered very good results, as indicated by their 3-year price changes.

So, which one is better? I think it depends on each financial institution's individual circumstances. Do you operate in slow to no growth markets? Perhaps a low operating expense/cash cow strategy is appropriate. 

Is your FI in business-rich markets and your niche is concierge-like service to tech firms? Well the low cost deposit strategy with higher expense ratios may be appropriate. 

Whatever strategy you choose, I implore you... to choose. The zigging and zagging, the all things to all people, the yes, yes, and yes strategies are misallocating resources and driving our financial institutions into homogenized and commoditized, irrelevant, soon to be sold and quickly forgotten memories that our 7,000 brethren that have been sold since the early '90's have become.

Are we going to let it happen?

~ Jeff

Bankers: What Is Your High Definition Destination?

Future Picture: "A high-definition picture that shows in great detail the future as you want it to be." Future Picture and its definition are from James D. Murphy's ("Murph") 2006 tome, Flawless Execution. I liked it so much, I e-mailed Murph at his consulting firm, Afterburner, for permission to quote from it.

Murph and his colleague, Will Duke, called me back. Since the 2006 book, their thought process has evolved. They created a more versatile version of Future Picture, one that can be applied to multiple industries with greater precision. They termed it High Definition Destination ("HDD") in their as-yet to be released book, Courage to Execute. 

In an excerpt of the book, HDD is described as follows:

" A HDD should be so described as to provide a beacon-like objective that drives the entire organization forward.  It should be clear and simple, yet high-definition."

In other words, Future Picture, and it's successor HDD, describe in vivid detail the organization you want to be. So vivid, in fact, that all levels of the organization know it, understand it, and can describe it in less than five minutes. 

I discussed with Will and Murph our industry's vision problem. Many if not most of our banks date back many generations, in simpler times when we had one branch that did all things banking to an entire town. Competition was limited and sometimes non-existent. So our vision started as something like this... Schmidlap National Bank. We're a bank. To the town of Schmidlap. 

Now things are more complex. We are in dozens if not hundreds of communities. Our products sometimes number in the hundreds. We compete with financial institutions that are located within those communities and outside of them. We don't just compete with banks, but also with credit unions (and vice versa), insurance companies, brokerage companies, virtual banks, and non-bank financial intermediaries. 

Yet our vision has evolved to something like this: Schmidlap National Bank. We're a bank. But not just in Schmidlap.

Don't believe me? Take this vision statement from an anonymous bank that I found randomly looking through bank vision statements on the web:

"Our vision is for [bank name] to build value by employing those human, financial and technological resources which will enable and insure its expansion, prosperity, and reputation for superior quality, performance and value returned to the communities, customers, team members and investors it serves."

How about that for a High Definition Destination? There's gotta be a yadda yadda yadda in there somewhere. Does this vision statement read like yours? Even a little bit? Does your vision provide that vivid picture where all employees know your HDD and make decisions and develop tactics to achieve it?

As Murph told me on the phone call, general vision gets general execution. Executing to achieve some general HDD promotes wasted effort. And minimizing wasted effort is critical to flawless execution.

So tell me, how specific is your vision? Do you have an HDD?

~ Jeff

Banking's Total Return Top 5: 2013 Edition

For the past two years I searched for the Top 5 financial institutions in five-year total return to shareholders because I grew weary of the "get big or get out" mentality of many bankers and industry pundits. If their platitudes about scale and all that goes with it are correct, then the largest FIs should logically demonstrate better shareholder returns. Right?

Not so over the three years I have been keeping track.

My method was to search for the best banks based on total return to shareholders over the past five years... capital appreciation and dividends. However, to exclude trading inefficiencies associated with illiquidity, I filtered for those FIs that trade over 1,000 shares per day. This, naturally, eliminated many of the smaller, illiquid FIs.

For comparison purposes, here are last year's top five, as measured during December, 2012:

#1.  BofI Holdings, Inc.
#2.  Bank of the Ozarks, Inc.
#3.  Access National Corporation
#4.  Hingham Institution for Savings
#5.  Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.

This year's list is in the table below:

BofI Holdings celebrates its third year on this august list. Congratulations to them. A summary of the banks, their strategies, and links to their website are below. 

#1. BofI Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: BOFI)

BofI Holdings Inc. and its subsidiary BofI Federal Bank aspire to be the most innovative branchless bank in the United States providing products and services superior to their competitors, branch-based or otherwise. In its latest investor presentation, BofI claims that its business model is more profitable because its costs are lower. It supports the claim by highlighting its efficiency ratio compared to peer banks (38.7% versus 68.5%, respectively) and its operating expenses as a percent of average assets compared to peer banks (1.66% versus 3.09%, respectively).So, as a branchless bank, BofI has leveraged its significantly lower operating expenses into profit. That profit led to the top spot in five year total return to shareholders, three years running. Well done!

#2. Marlin Business Services Corp. (Nasdaq: MRLN)

Continuing the theme of niche banks, Marlin is a direct lender providing financing to business so they can acquire new equipment and technology while preserving capital. Since 1997 Marlin has extended $3 billion in financing to small and mid-sized companies acquiring computer software and hardware, telecommunications, medical equipment, and other office equipment. I considered excluding Marlin from my rankings because it started as a straight finance company. But why exclude niche players? Especially if I believe community banks must increasingly be known for some niche to differentiate. I first became aware of Marlin at the Utah Bankers Association Executive Development Program, where a Marlin Business Bank officer was attending. Marlin Business Bank was chartered in 2008 so Marlin could fund its various financing activities. The Bank sports a year-to-date ROA of 2.90% and ROE of 19.6%. Not too shabby.

#3. Fidelity Southern Corporation (Nasdaq: LION)

One of the largest bank holding companies in the Atlanta area, you would first think that Fidelity Southern is the first plain vanilla community bank in the Top 5. But you would be wrong. How often have we seen banks pursue fee-based line of business strategies to augment their spread business but have failed miserably at running these businesses profitably? I know I have seen it more often than not. But Fidelity Southern's fee income to total revenue is between 50%-60%! Nearly half of the fee income comes from their mortgage banking business, boasting over 300 employees throughout the southeast, and ranking 2nd in the Atlanta MSA in purchased home volume. But their spread business is unique also. Over 50% of the loan portfolio is indirect auto, with originations coming from Tennessee to Florida.  Indirect auto portfolios, as many of you know, performed well during the past recessionary period. And Fidelity Southern shareholders have benefited. The bank achieved a year-to-date ROA of 1.24% and ROE of 14.16%. And earned a spot in the JFB Top 5 with a 517% five-year total return. Well done! 

#4. Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (Nasdaq: EGBN)

EagleBank, founded in 1998, is a traditional community-based business bank, serving the metro Washington DC market. The Company has posted 19 consecutive quarters of increased net income at September 30... a consistent financial performer. It had a 4.31% net interest margin and a 52% efficiency ratio for the third quarter. Commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans make up 74% of its loan portfolio. Loans are funded 86% with core deposits, allowing the bank to maintain a superior net interest margin. Another key to the bank's strong efficiency ratio is average deposits per branch. At September 30, the bank had $3 billion in deposits with only 18 branches, for an average of $166 million per branch. Eagle is run by Ron Paul, a highly respected real estate investor/developer. Interesting how so many high performing financial institutions have CEOs from other industries. I salute Eagle's 463% five-year total return to their shareholders.

#5. Bancorp, Inc. (Nasdaq: TBBK)

Founded in 2000, The Bancorp creates customized banks for affinity partners in the healthcare, payments, and institutional banking industry. According to its third quarter investor presentation, the bank's greatest revenue comes from pre-paid cards (35% of revenue), followed by revenues from a traditional community bank (22% of revenues) that manages $1.4 billion of the $4 billion asset balance sheet. The branchless community bank operates in the Wilmington-Philadelphia market. Yet another niche bank for our Top 5. The strategy delivered a year-to-date ROA of 0.59% and ROE of 6.89%, and a 453% five-year total return to shareholders. Congratulations! 

There you have it! The JFB all stars in top 5, five-year total return. The largest of the lot is $4 billion in total assets. Bank of America... not here. Jamie Dimon, ditto. PNC, sports a Steelers-like record. But, congratulations to all of the above that developed a specific strategy and is clearly executing well. Your shareholders have been rewarded!

Are you noticing themes that led to these banks' performance?

~ Jeff

Note: I make no investment recommendations in my blog. Please do not claim to invest in any security based on what you read here. You should make your own decisions in that regard. FINRA makes people take a test to ensure they know what they are doing before recommending securities. I'm sure that strategy works well.

Five Ideas on How to Consolidate a Bank Branch

Fellow blogger Jim Marous asked me what I thought were hot stove issues for banking in 2014. Top of my list, branch consolidation.

During the second quarter 2013, bank branches generated a relatively low 2.04% total revenue as a percent of average deposits. Average deposits per branch were approximately $53 million. This is according to my firm's profitability measurement peer group. Total revenue includes asset spread from branch-originated loans, liability spread from deposits, and fee income. 

So let's do some math: 2.04% x $53 million = $1.1 million. On the surface, this looks good for a branch that might cost $600 thousand per year in operating expenses. But hold on. What about paying for that army of operations, IT, compliance, finance, and executives back there at home office? According to my firm's profitability peer report, support/overhead centers cost branches approximately 0.99% of deposits. In the case of the $53 million branch, that's $525 thousand per year. Where are the profits now?

The cold hard truth resulting from the math is that branches have to be larger to deliver meaningful profits. Many if not most financial institutions are looking hard at smaller branches in smaller markets to consolidate and create a bigger branch that can deliver better results.

But what should you do to minimize customer attrition and negative perceptions if you decide to consolidate a branch? I have a few ideas.

1. Personnel - It all starts with your people. If you are consolidating a branch into another in the next town over, select your best people to run the consolidated branch, ideally with residents from each community. And by best, I don't mean longest tenured. By best, I mean those that have the greatest potential to execute on your strategy. 

2. Communicate with community leaders - One of the most often cited reason for leaving a struggling branch open is the perception closing it would have with the community. I suggest sending a bank executive, with your current/prospective market/branch manager to sit down with key community leaders to communicate your decision process, identify how you will continue to benefit the community although you won't have a brick and mortar facility, and ask how your financial institution can continue to play a meaningful role in helping community leaders execute their long-term plans. Then take those ideas discussed and execute on them.

3. Be charitable - I am an advocate of giving branch/market managers a charitable budget for small ticket giving such as to the local little league, scout troop, etc. I also believe that financial institutions should focus their charitable dollars and time around few causes so they can have the maximum impact. Look for an opportunity to support a cause important to the residents of the community where you are consolidating the branch, either through dollars or time, and ideally both. 

4. Be social and be local - Here is an idea that will have your compliance officer spinning... have locally run social media accounts that focus communication with people in very small geographies. That's right, I'm proposing having a Schmidlap National Bank Morris County New Jersey Twitter account @schmidlapnbmorris. By being local, following local residents, promoting local causes, and highlighting local events, your bank will be followed back by locals that find value in what you are communicating. And don't forget to add personality to the account. Nobody likes to follow a bland Twitter account that tweets the daily CD rate. If you closed the Parsippany branch, you could keep Parsippany residents better engaged by being the go-to source for super-local news, events, and causes.

5. Lend, lend, lend! - In the months before and after a branch consolidation ensure that your business development folks focus dedicate resources to finding business in the affected community. Make sure to actively communicate your continued commitment with signage such as "Another project financed by Schmidlap National Bank".

Those are my ideas. What are yours?

~ Jeff