Wednesday, September 26, 2018

For Financial Institutions, What Drives Value?

Not all financial institutions are publicly traded. But there are enough of them to help those that do not trade to measure what metrics drive the value of their franchise. 

So what metrics drive value? Umrai Gill, Managing Director of Performance Trust in Chicago presented his findings to the Financial Managers Society at their East Coast Regional Conference this month. Some results were surprising.

He first cited a survey performed by PT, asking their clients "what are the generally accepted drivers of institutional value?" Without identifying ranking or more details about their survey, the preponderance of responses were as follows, in no particular order: loan-to-deposit ratio, investment portfolio size, net interest margin, efficiency ratio, return on average assets (ROAA), return on average tangible equity (ROATE), capitalization, and asset size. 

Some were not very interesting to me, such as investment portfolio size, which might have been influenced by PT's specialty. Others might have been too investment community-like, such as ROATE, which doesn't count high premiums bank buyers pay for bank sellers that results in goodwill on the buyers' books, which is deducted from their regulatory capital. But others struck my curiosity to see if there were correlations between the metric and market valuations. 

And I thought I would share with my readers.The charts in the slides below was PT's analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence based on June 30, 2018 financial information using market data from 08/17/18.

First, the metrics that showed correlation to price to tangible book values. Not surprising, in my opinion.

Asset Size

Efficiency Ratio

Profitability / ROAA

Next, the ratio that did not show a correlation to price to tangible book multiples, at least not over 3.5%. I was a little surprised at this one.

Net Interest Margin

Lastly, and most interesting from my point of view, were ratios that showed mixed results. In other words, they showed positive correlation to price-to-tangible book ratios, up to a point. After which, they showed a correlation, but not what bankers would hope for.

Tangible Common Equity / Tangible Assets

Loan-to-Deposit Ratio

The highest market multiples were afforded to banks with a 70%-80% loan to deposit ratio. Now that may be related to size of institution, as the very largest, JPMorgan Chase (67% loan/deposit ratio) and Wells Fargo (76%) tend to have lower ratios. But there is likely something to the fact that a bank that still has strong liquidity as represented by a relatively lower loan-to-deposit ratio in a good economy has room to improve earnings by growing loans faster than deposits. While the less liquid must price up their deposits to get funding.

And capital, well, I refer you to a prior post where I clearly stated there was such a thing as too much capital. Investors will not pay a premium for hoarded capital. Performance Trust's research puts that sweet spot in the 9%-10% tangible common equity / tangible assets range. Enough capital to grow and/or absorb recessionary losses without selling off assets at a discount to bolster capital during hard times.

Where are your sweet spots?

~ Jeff

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Are Bank Products Simple, Fair, and Transparent?

I was on a road trip discussing banking with a colleague, and I mentioned that bank products are anything but simple, fair, and transparent. He said, “sounds like a blog post.”

I have never heard a bank customer say, “gee, I wish my bank relationship was more complex.” Yet we charge business checking fees based on a complex analysis, offer a 7-month special CD only to roll it into a lower yielding 6-monther if the customer isn’t attentive, and require high-interest checking customers to have 10 debit transactions, e-statements, and a partridge in a pear tree to get that rate. Sound simpler, fairer, and more transparent?
On the other side of the coin, bank customers don’t necessarily understand what it takes to run their accounts profitably. Dear customer, the Federal government requires financial institutions to monitor your account for suspicious activity and report anything untoward. That costs time and resources that drive up the cost for your checking account. That is why every overdraft fee, interchange transaction, and minimum balance fee counts. Your government drives up bank costs.
It costs $423 per year for a bank to run a retail interest-bearing checking account, based on my firm’s product profitability database. To cover that cost solely on the spread that your balances generate would require an average balance of $21,363 in your account. All. The. Time.
I have written on these pages that I thought the past practices of relying on customers to be asleep at the switch and accept rates significantly different than market rates will soon be over. Banks must shift business models to pay depositors something closer to market rates for “accumulation accounts”, which are accounts for long-term savings such as an emergency money market account, or a CD ladder.
Cost of funds advantages should be built on having relatively higher “store of value” accounts such as checking, or special purpose savings where convenience and safety are more important to the customer than accumulation.
So I don’t point out a problem without proposing a solution, I have an idea for a Simpler, Fairer, and more Transparent small business banking deposit product. Call it the Jeff For Banks (JFB) Business Banker Account. As I mentioned in past posts, I’m a narcissist and I’m trying to get something named after me.

JFB Business Banker Account
The product is a combined store of value checking account, and an accumulation money market and/or sweep account. But no sweep here into a repo where we have to pledge investment securities against balances. That wouldn’t meet the simple test.
Banks can pay businesses interest on their checking accounts. So I propose banks segment business checking accounts by their resource utilization, and create minimum balances based on this segmentation. So the college bar that drops off bags of money each morning at the local branch has a higher threshold before it doesn’t get charged a monthly maintenance fee and receives interest.
So the average balance for high utilization quartile account might be $70,000, above which the account receives a competitive interest rate, and below which the account is charged a monthly maintenance fee. Here is what the math might look like for Pete’s Corner Bar.

JFB Business Banker Account Profitability Estimates
1 Average Balance $92,102
2 Checking Average Balance 70,000
3 Checking FTP Spread* 1,463
4 Money Market Average Balance 22,102
5 Money Market FTP Spread* 197
6 Total Account Spread $1,660
7 Fees** $540
8 Annualized Operating Cost per Account* $784
9 Pre-tax Profit $1,416
10 Pre-tax ROA 1.54%
11 Equity Allocation* 1.00%
12 Pre-tax ROE 154%
13 Total Account Cost of Funds*** 0.30%
*Per TKG product profitability peer data
**Assumes one incoming/outgoing wire/month
***Money market balance * 1.25%

The bank would still charge per use fees for things like wires, ACH’s, overdrafts. And receive interchange income. But the spread should cover items presented plus profit for the bank. Imagine having 10,000 of the JFB’s Business Banker Account. Instead of 1,000 of this account, 2,000 of that account, 4,000 of another account, and 3,000 old grandfathered accounts. Which would be easier for your branch and business bankers to explain to your customers? And marketing people tell me that bankers sell what they know.
Does the JFB Business Banker account pass the Simple, Fair, and Transparent test?

~ Jeff