It is difficult to predict the future. When I was asked to predict the next banking crisis in 2023, I punted. I accepted the speaking engagement but failed to predict the future.
I must have been a fool.
Predictions are high currency. I consistently see the most readership, the most listenership, and the biggest crowds for those who are known to predict, rightly or wrongly. Part is that the predictors are good speakers and writers. They are asked so often to do it, they glide across the stage like ballroom dancers.
I gave predictions another shot, this time at a smaller, more intimate event for customers of Atlantic Community Bankers' Bank. I aptly named it Predictapalooza. For a fun twist and to engage the audience, we handed out fake tomatoes for people to throw at me if they disagreed with my predictions. Spoiler: the biggest barrage came when I predicted that the dollar would no longer be the world's reserve currency.
Nobody has asked me to do Predictapalooza again. Maybe because I didn't say it with the certainty and authority that the predictors do. I delivered my predictions not with gravitas but with humor. I still have not figured out how the predictors can be so certain.
This makes it more difficult for bankers to predict the direction of their industry, their markets, and their bank. Go to a conference and you are told with high confidence that this thing or that thing will happen. And that bankers must do this or do that. I spoke with industry veteran Charles Potts about this recently. That the barrage of banking and fintech prognostications has made bankers so skeptical it is resulting in inaction, rather than measured action.
As advisors, bankers want to hear from us about the direction of the industry, and how other banks are successfully navigating the current and emerging environment. We owe it to them to be as knowledgeable as possible and apply that knowledge to our clients' situation. By no means, however, are we certain.
And I would be skeptical of anyone who claims they are.
So far the dollar remains the world's reserve currency. And by making US Treasuries the collateral behind stablecoins, the Genius Act will make my prediction even less likely.
~ Jeff
Bonus coverage: A great AI use case is to evaluate past predictions. I did so below regarding Payments, Branches, and Cryptocurrencies. Remember those bold predictions?
I also did a "where are they now" for Best of Show winners from Finovate in 2015. Ten years ago. Only four of the eight are active and operational. The other four have been either acquired or shut down. And these were the "best."
Predictions on Payments
Five-to-ten
years ago (roughly 2015-2020), banking experts and industry reports made
several key predictions about the future of payments. Many
of these revolved around the rise of financial technology (FinTech) and digital
transformation.
Here is a
summary of some of those predictions, categorized as proven true or false:
Predictions
That Have Proven Largely True
|
Prediction
|
Outcome & Current Reality
|
Source Examples (General)
|
|
Increased Disruption from FinTechs in
Payments
|
FinTechs have significantly disrupted
the payments sector, particularly with peer-to-peer (P2P) payments and
non-bank money transfers, forcing traditional banks to adapt or partner.
|
PwC's Blurred lines: How FinTech is
shaping Financial Services (2016); McKinsey's analysis of FinTech growth.
|
|
Growth of Mobile and Digital Wallets
|
Digital wallets have become the leading
online payment method in many regions, and their adoption for in-person
payments has also increased substantially, displacing cash.
|
Federal Reserve's Diary of Consumer
Payment Choice; Worldpay's Global Payments Report series.
|
|
Decline in Cash Usage (at least in many
economies)
|
Non-cash transactions, particularly
electronic transactions, have continued to grow at a faster rate than overall
payments revenue, indicating a clear move away from cash.
|
McKinsey's On the cusp of the next
payments era; Capgemini's World Payments Report.
|
|
Momentum for Faster/Instant Payments
|
There has been a significant push and
implementation of instant payment systems globally (e.g., the EU's SEPA
Instant Credit Transfer, the US's FedNow, India's UPI). Consumers and
businesses increasingly demand faster payments.
|
American Banker's 2015 Predictions
Revisited (discusses momentum for a faster payments system); Treasury's The
Future of Money and Payments.
|
|
Increased Focus on Customer Centricity
|
The FinTech revolution has driven banks
and payments providers to focus intensely on improving the customer
experience (convenience, accessibility, tailored products) to compete with
tech-savvy new entrants.
|
PwC's Blurred lines: How FinTech is
shaping Financial Services.
|
Predictions
That Have Proven Largely False or Delayed
|
Prediction
|
Outcome & Current Reality
|
Source Examples (General)
|
|
Widespread Adoption of Blockchain/DLT
for Core Payments
|
While Distributed Ledger Technology
(DLT) and blockchain were heavily touted as the immediate future for core
payment system infrastructure (especially cross-border), their widespread,
day-to-day use for large-scale, primary payment systems has been slower
than predicted. Instant payment systems (like FedNow and SEPA Instant) were
often built on established rail upgrades, not DLT.
|
KPMG's 10 predictions for the future
of payments (2020, still predicting DLT as the primary means); Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) papers discussing DLT and central bank
initiatives.
|
|
Disappearance of Cash in the U.S.
|
While cash usage has declined in the
U.S. compared to its global counterparts, it has proven resilient, especially
among certain demographics and for small-dollar transactions. The prediction
of cash "plummeting" in the near term has not fully materialized.
|
Federal Reserve's Diary of Consumer
Payment Choice (notes cash's resilient "floor of support" in
North America); Forrester predictions cited in Payments Dive (often
predicting a plummet that has not fully occurred).
|
|
Banks' Immediate Loss of Most of Their
Payments Business
|
While FinTechs have captured market
share, the prediction that a very large percentage of traditional banking's
business would be lost to FinTechs by 2020 often overstated the pace.
Banks have largely retained their core role by either modernizing, acquiring
FinTechs, or forming partnerships.
|
PwC's Blurred lines: How FinTech is
shaping Financial Services (2016, predicted "More than 20% of FS
business is at risk to FinTechs by 2020").
|
Source
Citation Note:
Sources
for these predictions and outcomes are generally found in industry reports and
analysis published by major consulting firms, such as McKinsey & Company,
PwC, Capgemini, and KPMG, as well as reports from central
banks and regulatory bodies like the Federal Reserve and the Bank for
International Settlements (BIS).
- For a specific example of a
prediction review:
The American Banker article 2015 Predictions Revisited: What the
Seers Got Right and Wrong is an example of an industry publication
specifically tracking and reviewing past predictions.
- For a specific example of
early predictions on disruption:
PwC's Blurred lines: How FinTech is shaping Financial Services
(2016) heavily emphasized the risk to incumbents and the disruption in
payments by 2020.
- For a specific example of
ongoing payment trends:
The Federal Reserve's Diary of Consumer Payment Choice
reports and other studies provide concrete data on shifts in cash vs.
digital payments in the US.
Predictions on Branches
This is a
fascinating look back at the rapidly evolving banking landscape. Based on
reports and analyses from the 2015-2020 period, banking experts made
several predictions about the future of bank branches.
Here is a
summary of expert predictions from five to ten years ago, categorized by what
has proven generally true and what has proven generally false or more
nuanced, along with representative sources.
Predictions
That Have Proven Generally True
|
Prediction
|
Supporting
Evidence in Practice (True)
|
Source
Examples (2015-2020 Context)
|
|
Net
Decline in Physical Branch Count
|
The
overall number of physical bank branches in the U.S. has continued to decline
year-over-year, with the rate of closures often increasing in the mid-to-late
2010s, and accelerating due to the pandemic.
|
A 2018
analysis noted a net loss of over 5,400 bank branches since 2012, with the
closure rate nearly doubling between 2015 and 2018. The NCRC noted a loss of
over 13,400 branches since 2008. (Self Financial, NCRC)
|
|
Shift
from Transactional to Advisory Role
|
Branches
are increasingly being repurposed from high-volume transaction centers (like
teller lines) to centers for complex advice, sales, and relationship building
(e.g., mortgages, wealth management).
|
A 2021
review noted that the move toward branches focusing on an "advisory
focus" rather than a "transaction focus" was a confirmed trend
in the industry. (The Financial Brand)
|
|
Increased
Integration of In-Branch Technology
|
New and
remodeled branches feature more self-service options, such as Interactive
Teller Machines (ITMs) and digital signage, replacing some of the functions
of traditional tellers.
|
Experts
noted the acceleration of "migration of transactions to self-service...
including leveraging interactive teller machines, or ITMs." (BAI via
Coconut Software)
|
|
Reduced
Branch Size and Optimized Footprint
|
Banks
began reducing the square footage of new and remodeled branches to lower real
estate costs, preferring smaller, more efficient, and strategically located
sites.
|
Data
shows that the average new branch location for the largest banks had
decreased its square footage significantly (e.g., 46% reduction from 2000 to
2023 YTD), moving away from large strip-center or first-floor office
branches. (Cushman & Wakefield, though the data extends past 2020, the
trend started earlier).
|
Predictions
That Have Proven Generally False or More Nuanced
|
Prediction
|
Supporting
Evidence in Practice (False/Nuanced)
|
Source
Examples (2015-2020 Context)
|
|
"The
Death of the Branch" (Complete Extinction)
|
While
closures have been significant, the prediction that all or nearly all U.S.
branches would close by a near-term date (e.g., by 2030 or 2034) has not
materialized.
|
Reports
around 2020 and later surveys consistently show that a large majority of
consumers (e.g., 94% in a 2020 study, 72% in a 2023 survey) still use a bank
with physical branches, value having a nearby location, and prefer in-person
for complex activities like loan selection or problem resolution. (WBR
Insights/Coconut Software, TD Bank via The Financial Brand)
|
|
Massive
Decline in Customer Reliance on Physical Banking
|
While
digital use surged, the physical branch remains important for a substantial
portion of the population and specific interactions.
|
Even
with the rise of digital tools accelerated by the pandemic, a significant
portion of consumers (e.g., 84% in a 2023 survey) reported visiting a branch
in the past year, and many (41-52%) prefer in-branch interaction for complex
issues or financial planning. (WBR Insights/Coconut Software, TD Bank via The
Financial Brand)
|
|
Smaller
Banks Will Quickly Disappear Due to Branch Costs
|
Community
banks have shown greater resilience in performance than some predictions,
leveraging their traditional relationship model.
|
A 2020
FDIC study noted that community banks proved resilient after the 2008
financial crisis, showing faster growth in return on assets, stronger asset
quality, and higher loan growth rates relative to non-community banks in the
2012-2019 period. (FDIC)
|
Source
Citations and Context
The
predictions were often driven by the dual trends of increasing mobile adoption
and the post-financial crisis need for banks to cut costs and consolidate,
leading to a focus on "optimization."
- Net Decline & Branch
Redefinition:
The trend of bank closures and the re-imagining of the remaining branches
into "advisory hubs" were commonly cited and have been
consistently supported by FDIC data and industry analysis (e.g., Self
Financial, NCRC, The Financial Brand).1
- The "Death of the
Branch" Narrative:
While sensationalist predictions of near-term zero branches circulated,
the persistence of consumer demand for physical locations for certain
needs (especially advice and problem resolution) has demonstrated a more
nuanced, "blended model" where digital and physical channels
coexist (WBR Insights/Coconut Software, Cushman & Wakefield).
Predictions on Cryptocurrency
During the
period of approximately five to ten years ago (roughly 2015-2020), banking
experts and financial authorities often expressed a mix of skepticism and
cautious optimism regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.
Their predictions have played out in varied ways.
Here is a
summary of some of the predictions that have proven true and those that
have proven false, along with sources that reflect the sentiment of that
era:
Predictions
Proven True
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
Source
Reference
|
|
Extreme
Volatility and Speculative Bubble
|
Cryptocurrencies,
especially Bitcoin, have demonstrated extreme price volatility with
significant spikes and slumps, confirming their nature as highly speculative
investments rather than stable currencies for exchange.
|
Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) 2018; Brookings Institution (Prasad, 2021);
European Central Bank (ECB) (2022)
|
|
Use
in Illicit Activities
|
The
anonymity offered by early cryptocurrency transactions made them the
preferred medium for illicit activities, including fraud, scams, and
ransomware payments.
|
Brookings
Institution (Prasad, 2021); Chainalysis (cited in MDPI, 2023)
|
|
High
Transaction Costs/Scalability Issues (for early Bitcoin)
|
As
Bitcoin grew in popularity, issues like slow transaction times and high fees
became prominent, making it cumbersome for daily use as a medium of exchange.
|
Brookings
Institution (Prasad, 2021)
|
|
Importance
of Underlying Blockchain Technology
|
While
skeptical of the currency itself, many experts acknowledged that the
underlying distributed ledger technology (DLT), or blockchain, was ingenious
and had potential to transform payment services and financial settlement
processes.
|
Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) 2018; International Monetary Fund (IMF)
(Lagarde, 2018)
|
Predictions
Proven False or Partially False
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
Source
Reference
|
|
Crypto
will Go to Zero / It's a "Ponzi Scheme"
|
While
some prominent figures predicted Bitcoin's value would crash to zero (e.g.,
Nobel laureate Eugene Fama's prediction), the overall cryptocurrency market
cap has grown dramatically (reaching over $2.5 trillion in late 2021), and
Bitcoin has established itself as a recognized, though volatile, asset class.
|
Chicago
Booth (Fama, cited in Capitalisn't); MDPI (Prasad, 2021); ECB (2022)
|
|
Banks
Will Be Displaced by Decentralized Systems
|
While
there has been disruption, traditional banking and central banks have not
been replaced. Instead, financial institutions have largely remained on the
sidelines initially but are now increasingly exploring and adopting the
underlying technology and, in some cases, offering crypto-related services.
Central banks are also exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
|
Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) 2018; Brookings Institution (Prasad, 2021);
ECB (2022)
|
|
Lack
of "Legitimacy" as a Financial Instrument
|
Initial
skepticism labeled Bitcoin as merely a tool for money laundering. However,
some major financial institutions and investors (like BlackRock's Larry Fink,
who previously called it a money-laundering index) have since reversed their
positions, calling it a "legitimate financial instrument" and
seeking to incorporate it into mainstream finance (e.g., through ETFs).
|
Chicago
Booth (Fink, cited in Capitalisn't)
|
Citations
and Further Reading:
- Bank for International
Settlements (BIS).
V. Cryptocurrencies: looking beyond the hype. Annual Report 2018,
Chapter V (Published in June 2018).1 (Reflects expert caution
on scalability, efficiency, and role as money.)
- Brookings Institution. Prasad, Eswar. Bitcoin:
The brutal truths revealed. (Published June 16, 2021).2
(Discusses volatility, illicit use, and scalability issues.)
- Chicago Booth / Capitalisn't. Why This Nobel Economist
Thinks Bitcoin Is Going to Zero. (Published January 30, 2025 - but
discusses prior Fama and Fink predictions from earlier years).3
(Cites early high-profile skepticism that proved largely false on the
"zero" price point.)
- European Central Bank (ECB). Decrypting financial
stability risks in crypto-asset markets. Financial Stability Review
May 2022, Box B. (Reflects the view that crypto's size and complexity grew
significantly since late 2020, and highlights high volatility.)4
- International Monetary Fund
(IMF).
Lagarde, Christine. The Future of Currency in a Digital World.
Finance & Development, Vol. 55, No. 2. (Published June 2018).
(Reflects a more measured expert view, advising to "keep an open
mind... not only because of the risks they pose, but also because of their
potential.")
Source:
Google Gemini AI
Finovate Fall 2015 Best of Show
Prompt: ###
FinovateFall 2015 Best of Show Winners and Their Current Status (as of October
2025)
The
FinovateFall 2015 conference, held September 15-16, 2015, in New York City,
featured 70 live fintech demos. Attendees voted for the Best of Show winners
based on innovation and demo quality. The eight winners were announced on
September 17, 2015, in alphabetical order. Below is a table summarizing each
company, a brief recap of their demoed technology, and their status today. Many
have evolved, been acquired, or pivoted significantly over the past decade.
|---------------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|
|
**Blockstack.io** | Private, hosted blockchain platform for financial services
and enterprises to build apps via APIs and SDKs. | Acquired by Digital Asset in
2015 for blockchain settlement tools; the original entity is no longer active.
(Note: This is distinct from the later Stacks blockchain project, which
rebranded from Blockstack in 2021.) |
|
**Dyme** | Text-messaging-based
savings tool to help users build habits and fund goals in real-time. | Shut
down; the San Francisco-based company (founded 2014) ceased operations after
participating in accelerators like Bank Innovation INV. (A separate, unrelated
Dutch fintech named Dyme, focused on AI savings apps, was acquired by RISK in
2024.) |
|
**Dynamics** | Programmable payment cards with Stripe, EMV, and NFC interfaces
for enhanced security and functionality. | Active and operational;
headquartered in Pittsburgh, PA, it specializes in battery-powered interactive
cards (e.g., Wallet Card™) and partners with Mastercard, JCB, and banks like
Emirates NBD for connected payment solutions. |
|
**Finanteq** | SuperWallet app integrating m-commerce, remote services, and
mobile banking for banks. | Active; Polish fintech (Lublin-based, founded 2014)
with 100+ employees, now part of eLeader Group. Offers mobile banking
platforms, ranked among top Polish fintechs by Deloitte, and publishes on 2025
trends like BNPL and cybersecurity. |
|
**Hedgeable** | Digital wealth management platform with active, gamified
investing for millennials. | Shut down; New York-based robo-advisor (founded
2009, ~$80M AUM in 2018) terminated services and deregistered with the SEC in
August 2018 to pivot toward blockchain tech via a spin-off (Hydrogen). |
|
**HelloWallet** | Retirement Explorer tool for employees to model retirement
outcomes and optimize benefits. | Active; Washington, DC-based (founded 2009),
acquired by KeyBank (undisclosed date). Now a KeyBank company offering
personalized financial guidance via app, integrated with employer benefits and
partners like Vanguard. |
|
**SaleMove** | Engagement platform with OmniCall for face-to-face-like live
interactions between online consumers and businesses. | Active (rebranded); New
York-based (founded 2008), rebranded to Glia in 2020. Provides unified customer
interaction management (messaging, video, AI) for financial services, serving
banks, credit unions, and insurers. |
|
**Soundpays** | Ultrasonic/sonic waveform recognition for app-based engagement
in noisy environments (e.g., payments/proximity marketing). | Active;
Toronto-based (founded 2015), focuses on inaudible soundwave tech for real-time
mobile engagement. Recent activations include Houston Texans NFL partnership
and app launches like @The Lightshow for fan experiences. |
Source:
Grok AI
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